中国农业生产性服务与农业碳排放的非线性分析

NONLINEAR ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVE SERVICES AND AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS IN CHINA

关键词:  农业生产性服务  农业碳排放  倒“U”型关系  中介效应  门槛效应

Key words:  agricultural productive services  agricultural carbon emissions  inverted "U" relationship  mediating effect  threshold effect

摘要:

目的 发展农业生产性服务与减少农业碳排放是中国实现农业高质量发展与“双碳”目标的根本出路，探究中国农业生产性服务对农业碳排放的作用机制与影响效应，以期为促进农业绿色可持续发展、推进农业低碳转型提供理论支撑与经验依据。方法 文章基于2010—2022年中国31个省（市、区，不含港澳台）的面板数据，在测算中国各省份农业碳排放基础上，采用双向固定效应模型、中介模型、门槛模型与空间自回归模型（SAR），实证检验中国农业生产性服务影响农业碳排放的非线性关系。结果 （1）农业生产性服务对农业碳排放的影响呈现先促进后抑制的倒“U”型特征，该结论经一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立；（2）农业生产性服务对农业碳排放的影响存在基于农地经营规模的双重门槛效应，其负向作用在农地经营规模跨过第1个门槛值后显著增强，在农地经营规模跨过第2个门槛值后转变为正向；（3）北方地区、职业农户组农业生产性服务与农业碳排放之间呈现倒“U”型非线性关系；（4）本地区农业生产性服务对农业碳排放呈倒“U”型关系，但对邻近地区不存在显著的空间溢出效应。结论 该文提出推动农业生产性服务转型升级、注重农地适度规模经营与农业生产性服务协同发展、因地制宜发展多元化农业生产性服务、促进农业生产性服务区域交流合作等方式促进农业生产性服务业绿色高质量发展。

Abstract:

The advancement of agricultural productive services (APS) and the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) are crucial strategies for achieving high-quality agricultural development and fulfilling China's "dual carbon" objectives. This research aims to conduct an investigation, and explores the mechanisms and impact of APS on ACE, so as to provide both theoretical foundations and empirical evidence in supporting sustainable agricultural practices and a low-carbon transition. By utilizing panel data from and on the basis of calculating the ACE of 31 provincial area in China spanning from 2010 to 2022, four econometric models—bidirectional fixed effects, mediation analysis, threshold analysis, and spatial autoregressive (SAR)—were employed to estimate provincial APS levels and assess their impact on ACE. Key findings revealed that: (1) The relationship between APS and ACE followed a U-shaped pattern, characterized by an initial increase in emissions before subsequent mitigation. This finding remained robust across multiple validation tests; (2) The impact of APS on ACE demonstrated a dual-threshold effect, contingent on farmland operation scale. When the first threshold was surpassed, APS exerted a significantly stronger negative effect on ACE; however, beyond the second threshold, this effect reversed and became positive; (3) APS provided in northern regions group and that of professional farmer group both exhibited a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped relationship with ACE; (4) At the regional level, APS exhibited an inverted U-shaped relationship with ACE, but no significant spatial spillover effects on adjacent regions were observed. To promote green and high-quality APS development, a multidimensional strategy is proposed, including: Promoting the transformation and upgrading of APS, emphasizing the coordinated development of moderate-scale farmland management and APS, and developing the diversification of APS tailored to regional conditions, and enhancing regional cooperation and knowledge exchange in APS implementation to promote the gssreen and high-quality development of APS.