中国甘薯生产布局变迁及其影响因素研究

THE CHANGES AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE PRODUCTION LAYOUT OF SWEET POTATO IN CHINA

关键词:  甘薯  生产布局  重心转移  影响因素  空间杜宾模型

Key words:  sweet potato  production layout  shifting of gravity center  influencing factor  spatial Durbin model

摘要:

目的 中国是甘薯生产和消费大国，甘薯作为我国重要的粮食作物、经济作物和饲料作物，掌握其生产布局规律对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。方法 文章基于1997—2022年中国甘薯生产各地的面板数据，利用甘薯种植面积、产量、产地集中度系数及Moran's I指数，分析中国甘薯生产重心的变迁情况，并构建空间杜宾模型分析各方面因素对甘薯生产布局的具体影响。结果 （1）20多年来中国甘薯种植和产量重心呈逐渐向西南地区迁移的趋势，生产重心位于湖北省境内，甘薯种植的空间集聚效应逐渐突出；（2）当前中国甘薯生产优势区与产能集聚区不一致，制约了甘薯产业的健康可持续发展，因此对影响其生产布局的因素进行研究；（3）中国甘薯生产存在显著的空间溢出效应，其生产布局的变迁是本地与邻近地区自然条件、社会经济、基础设施和品牌建设情况等因素共同作用的结果。结论 把握甘薯生产布局变迁规律，改善农业生产条件和交通运输水平，塑造包含区域特色的甘薯品牌，并加强各地区间的合作，打造甘薯作物优势产区，以充分发挥其在农业增效、农民增收和产业扶贫等方面的重要作用。

Abstract:

China is a major producer and consumer of sweet potatoes. As an important food crop, cash crop and feed crop in our country, it is of great significance to master the production layout law of sweet potato for ensuring national food security. Based on the panel data of various provinces of sweet potato production in China from 1997 to 2022, the change of sweet potato production center in China was analyzed by using sweet potato planting area, yield, origin concentration coefficient and Moran's I index. The spatial Durbin model was constructed to analyze the specific effects of various factors on sweet potato production layout. The analysis results show that over the past 20-plus years, the center of sweet potato planting and production in China has gradually shifted to the southwest region. The production center is located within Hubei Province, and the spatial agglomeration effect of sweet potato planting has gradually become prominent. At present, the advantageous production areas of sweet potatoes in China are inconsistent with the production capacity agglomeration areas, which restricts the healthy and sustainable development of the sweet potato industry. Therefore, the factors influencing its production layout are studied. Research shows that there is a significant spatial spillover effect in sweet potato production in China. The changes in its production layout are the result of the combined effects of local and neighboring regions' natural conditions, social economy, infrastructure and brand building. Therefore, grasping the change law of sweet potato production layout, improving agricultural production conditions and transportation levels, shaping sweet potato brands with regional characteristics, and strengthening cooperation between different regions to create sweet potato crop advantage producing areas, so as to give full play to its important role in agricultural efficiency, farmers' income increase and industrial poverty alleviation.