乡村特色产业新内源式发展与农民增收——基于演化博弈的分析与实证

NEW ENDOGENOUS DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL CHARACTERISTIC INDUSTRIES AND FARMERS' INCOME INCREASE——ANALYSIS AND EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON EVOLUTIONARY GAME THEORY

关键词:  乡村特色产业新内源式发展  农民增收  演化博弈  收入渠道多元化  信贷可获得性

Key words:  new endogenous development of rural characteristic industries  farmers' income  evolutionary game  diversify revenue channels  credit availability

摘要:

目的 探究乡村特色产业推动农民收入提升的路径是实现共同富裕的重要内容。方法 文章考虑乡村特色产业新内源式发展中企业与农民的互动关系，构建“企业—农民”两方主体演化博弈动态模型，刻画企业与农民的行为决策机制。并基于贵州、云南、广西和湖北4地特色产业农民的566份调研数据，采用PSM等方法验证乡村特色产业新内源式发展对农民增收的净效应。结果 （1）通过对两方演化博弈动态模型的理论分析可知，农民与企业最终都会采取“合作”策略，进而实现乡村特色产业新内源式发展。同时，实证分析表明乡村特色产业新内源式发展能显著促进农民增收。（2）男性农民和低文化程度农民的增收效应更为突出。（3）收入渠道多元化在乡村特色产业新内源式发展推动农民增收的过程中发挥了中介效应；而信贷可获得性则具有正向调节作用。结论 （1）突出基层党组织对乡村发展的引领作用，构建企业与乡村相互融合、相向而行的发展格局。（2）村集体应给予女性农民、低文化程度农民更多的关注与照顾。（3）鼓励企业管理者接“二”连“三”，拓宽农民增收渠道。（4）巧用金融“活水”，提升支农效率。

Abstract:

Exploring pathways for enhancing farmers' income through the development of rural characteristic industries, which is a vital component in achieving common prosperity. Considering the interactive relationship between enterprises and farmers in the new endogenous development of rural characteristic industries, we constructed a dynamic model of evolutionary game theory involving the two main entities, enterprises and farmers, to illustrate their behavioral decision-making mechanisms. Furthermore, based on 566 survey data collected from farmers engaged in characteristic industries in Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Hubei, methods such as Propensity Score Matching (PSM) were employed to verify the net effect of the new endogenous development of rural characteristic industries on increasing farmers' incomes. The research findings indicated that the new endogenous development of rural characteristic industries significantly contributed to increasing farmers' incomes. Particularly, the income-boosting effect was more evident among male farmers and those with lower educational attainment. Moreover, the diversification of income sources acted as an intermediary mechanism in the process through which the new endogenous development of these industries promoted farmers' income growth. Additionally, credit availability exerted a positive moderating influence on this relationship. Therefore, based on the research findings, four recommendations are proposed. Firstly, the leading role of grassroots Party organizations in rural development should be emphasized, fostering a development framework of mutual integration and mutual progress between enterprises and rural areas. Secondly, village collectives should give more attention and support to female farmers and those with lower educational levels. Thirdly, enterprise managers should be encouraged to pursue integrated industrial development, thereby broadening income avenues for farmers. Lastly, financial resources should be strategically utilized to enhance the efficiency of agricultural support.