农村人口结构对保险配置的影响及政策建议

THE IMPACT OF RURAL POPULATION STRUCTURE ON INSURANCE ALLOCATION AND POLICY SUGGESTIONS

关键词:  家庭人口结构  养老保险  医疗保险  农业保险  农村风险保障体系  保险配置需求

Key words:  family demographic structure  social security  medical insurance  agricultural insurance  rural risk guarantee system  insurance allocation demand

摘要:

目的 在人口老龄化和农村空心化的背景下，家庭人口结构变动对农村社会保障体系提出了新要求。方法 文章基于河南、湖北及湖南3省794份农户数据，从家庭人口年龄结构和人口性别结构两个维度着手，对家庭人口结构变动对养老保险、医疗保险及农业保险3类常见保险采纳行为的影响进行实证分析。结果 （1）老年人口比例的增加对家庭养老保险、医疗保险及农业保险配置产生显著负面影响，少年儿童比例提升对家庭养老保险需求具有负面效应。（2）家庭中成年女性比例的增加对家庭养老保险、医疗保险需求有负向作用。（3）机制分析结果表明，现金约束、认知约束、知识约束和务工依赖这4个因素对家庭的保险需求产生了显著影响。（4）异质性分析表明，在兼业农户样本中，家庭中老人、少儿及成年女性人口占比对保险参与的负向影响更大。结论 政府应进一步提高农村社会保险补贴水平，拓宽基础保险宣传渠道，加强农户金融知识培训，鼓励兼业农户家庭参与农村社会保险，以提升农户抗击风险的能力，推动乡村建设和谐美好。

Abstract:

Against the background of an aging population and rural hollowing, alterations in the family demographic structure impose new requirements on the rural social security system. Relying on 794 sets of farmer household data from Henan, Hubei, and Hunan provinces, commencing from the two dimensions of the age structure and gender structure of the family population, an empirical analysis was conducted on the influence of changes in the family demographic structure on the adoption behaviors of three common types of insurance: endowment insurance, medical insurance, and agricultural insurance. The results were showed as follows. The growth in the proportion of the elderly population exerted a significantly negative influence on the allocation of endowment insurance, medical insurance, and agricultural insurance for the family. The increase in the proportion of children and adolescents exerted a negative effect on the family's demand for endowment insurance. Additionally, the rise in the proportion of adult females in the family had a negative impact on the family's demand for endowment insurance and medical insurance. The results of the mechanism analysis indicated that the four factors of cash constraints, cognitive constraints, knowledge constraints, and reliance on off-farm employment had a significant effect on the family's insurance demand. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrated that in the sample of part-time farming households, the negative influence of the proportions of the elderly, children and adolescents, and adult females in the family on insurance participation was more pronounced. Therefore, the government should further enhance the subsidy level of rural social insurance, broaden the publicity channels for basic insurance, intensify the financial knowledge training for farmers, encourage part-time farming households to participate in rural social insurance, in order to enhance the ability of farmers to withstand risks and promote the construction of a harmonious and beautiful countryside.