农业机械化水平对农业碳排放强度影响研究——基于2004—2021年30个省域面板数据检验

IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION DEVELOPMENT ON AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSION INTENSITY——BASED ON A PANEL DATA TEST FOR 30 PROVINCES FROM 2004—2021

关键词:  农业机械化  农业碳排放强度  农地经营规模  大中小型农机  农业经济发展水平

Key words:  agricultural mechanization  carbon intensity of agriculture  scale of farmland operations  large, medium and small farm machinery  level of agricultural economic development

摘要:

目的 “双碳”背景下，农业机械化是推动农业现代化，促进农业高质量绿色发展的关键环节之一，深入探讨农业机械化如何影响农业碳排放强度，将有助于推动中国农业领域走向绿色低碳的发展道路。方法 文章基于2004—2021年中国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台和西藏）的面板数据，采用面板固定效应模型、中介效应模型、空间计量模型，探讨农业机械化对农业碳排放强度的影响及其机制，分析不同农业经济发展水平、不同地区间的影响差异，进一步探讨了不同动力的大中小型农机的碳减排作用。结果 （1）农业机械化水平的提高能显著降低农业碳排放强度，且可以通过提高农地经营规模进而降低农业碳排放强度；（2）从空间效应来看，农业机械化对农业碳排放强度存在负向空间溢出效应，有利于相邻地区的碳减排；（3）不同的农业经济发展水平的地区对农业碳排放强度具有异质性；从地区来看，东部地区对于降低农业碳排放强度更显著。（4）样本观察期内，小型农机在降低农业碳排放强度方面具有一定潜力，大中型农机一定程度上增加了碳排放。结论 建议在农业碳减排行动中，应着重推广生态环保农业机械和技术，并推动农业机械装备的绿色改革创新，适度扩大农地的经营规模，因地制宜选择农业机械等，为实现可持续发展做出贡献。

Abstract:

In the background of ‘double-carbon’, agricultural mechanization is one of the key processes to promote the modernization of agriculture and high-quality green development of agriculture, and an in-depth discussion on how agricultural mechanization affects the agricultural carbon emission intensity will help to promote the agricultural sector in China towards a green and low-carbon development path. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (cities and autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang) in China from 2004 to 2021, the panel fixed-effects model, mediated-effects model and spatial econometric model were used to explore the impacts and mechanisms of agricultural mechanization on the agricultural carbon emission intensity, as well as the differences in impacts between different levels of agricultural economic development and different regions, and the carbon emission reduction roles of large, medium and small-sized agricultural machines with different power sources were further explored. The results were listed as follows. (1) The increase in the level of agricultural mechanization could significantly reduce the agricultural carbon emission intensity, and it could reduce the intensity of agricultural carbon emission through the scale of agricultural land operation; (2) From the perspective of spatial effect, there was a negative spatial spillover effect of agricultural mechanization on the agricultural carbon emission intensity, which was conducive to carbon emission reduction of the neighboring regions; (3) During the sample observation period, small-sized agricultural machines had a certain potential to reduce the agricultural carbon emission intensity, and medium-sized and large-sized agricultural machinery increased carbon emission to a certain extent; (4) Regions with different levels of agricultural economic development were heterogeneous in terms of agricultural carbon emission intensity; and from a regional perspective, the eastern region was more significant in reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity. In summary, based on the above research, this study suggests that in agricultural carbon emission reduction actions, emphasis should be placed on the promotion of ecological and environmentally friendly agricultural machines and technologies, as well as the promotion of green reforms and innovations in agricultural machinery and equipment, the moderate expansion of the scale of operation of agricultural land, and the selection of agricultural machinery in accordance with the local conditions to make a contribution to the realization of sustainable development.