认知能力、时间偏好与农户秸秆还田决策研究基于合作社和经营规模的调节效应

COGNITIVE ABILITY, TIME PREFERENCE AND FARMERS' DECISION TO STRAW RETURN*——MODERATING EFFCTS BASED ON COOPERATIVES AND SCALE OF OPERATION

关键词:  认知能力  时间偏好  农户秸秆还田决策  合作社  经营规模

Key words:  cognitive ability  time preference  farmers' straw return decisions  cooperative  scale of operation

摘要:

目的 结合现实背景，构建“认知能力—时间偏好—秸秆还田决策”的分析框架，论证认知能力对于农户秸秆还田决策的影响，为政府制定政策提供参考，以期推动农业绿色高质量发展。方法 文章基于2022年辽宁省1 166份玉米种植户实地调查数据，运用Logit、Fractional Logit和中介效应模型，实证分析了认知能力对农户秸秆还田决策的影响，讨论了时间偏好在二者之间发挥的中介作用，并进一步分析了合作社与经营规模的调节效应。结果 （1）认知能力对农户秸秆还田决策具有积极正向作用，认知能力显著地提高了农户采纳秸秆还田的概率及农户的秸秆还田量。（2）时间偏好在认知能力影响农户秸秆还田决策中发挥了部分中介作用。（3）加入农民专业合作社在认知能力对农户秸秆还田决策的影响中发挥正向调节作用，经营规模在认知能力对农户秸秆还田决策的影响中发挥负向调节作用。（4）在低收入、低经营规模、高政策宣传的农户群组中，其认知能力对秸秆还田决策的影响更加明显。结论 强化农业技术培训，加大对土地流转的政策扶持力度；改善农户短期投资倾向的同时应锚定合理的秸秆还田补贴对象；政府对于秸秆还田等新技术的宣传与指导不能停留在技术本身的好处上，应更加深入到技术的使用之中；加强秸秆还田技术的研发及落地应用，强化对农户的设备支持力度。

Abstract:

Based on the actual background, an analytical framework of “cognitive ability—time preference—straw return decision” is constructed to demonstrate the influence of cognitive ability on farmers' straw return decisions and provide a reference for the government to formulate policies to promote the green and high-quality development of agriculture. Based on data from a field survey of 1 166 maize farmers in Liaoning province in 2022, this study empirically analyzed the impact of cognitive ability on farmers' straw return decisions by using logit, fractional logit, and mediation effect models, and discussed the mediating role of time preference between the two, then explored the moderating effects of cooperatives and scale of operation. The results showed that: (1) Cognitive ability had a positive effect on farmers' straw return decisions and significantly increased the probability of adopting straw returns and the amount of straw returned by farmers; (2) Time preference played a partial mediating role in cognitive ability influencing farmers' straw return decision; (3) Joining professional cooperatives played a positive moderating role in the influence of cognitive ability on farmers' decisions to return straw to the fields, and the scale of operation played a negative moderating role in the influence of cognitive ability on the decision to return straw to the fields; (4) The influence of cognitive ability on straw return decisions was more pronounced in low-income, low-scale operation, and strong policy advocacy farmer clusters. In summary, strengthening agricultural technology training, increasing land transfer policy support, and improving the short-term investment tendency of farmers at the same time should be anchored in a reasonable target of straw return subsidies. The government's publicity and guidance for new technologies such as straw return should not stop at the benefits of the technology itself, but should be more in-depth to the use of the technology, strengthen the research and development and application of straw return technology, and bolster support for farmers' equipment.