中国肉牛养殖场户种养结合经济效应分析基于多项内生转换回归模型

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CROP-LIVESTOCK INTEGRATED SYSTEM IN BEEF CATTLE FARMS IN CHINABASED ON MULTINOMIAL ENDOGENOUS SWITCHING REGRESSION MODEL

关键词:  肉牛养殖场户  种养结合  经济效应  多项内生转换回归模型

Key words:  beef cattle breeding farm  crop-livestock integrated system  economic effects  multinomial endogenous switching regression model

摘要:

目的 为推动中国种养结合循环绿色农业发展，探寻肉牛养殖节本增效路径，助力乡村振兴。方法 文章基于中国肉牛养殖6个典型省份652个肉牛养殖场户的实地调研数据，运用多项内生处理效应模型，在反事实框架下，从不同种养结合模式和强度两个视角研究肉牛养殖场户的经济效应。结果 （1）种养结合能够显著提高肉牛养殖场户的净利润水平，且在不同模式及强度下存在显著差异。（2）就不同种养结合模式而言，与非种养结合相比，独立型种养结合、混合型种养结合和合作型种养结合的肉牛养殖净利润会显著增加。（3）就不同种养结合强度而言，与松散型种养结合相比，一般型和紧密型的种养结合的肉牛养殖净利润会显著增加。结论 提出肉牛养殖业种养结合发展的相关建议：探索高效种养结合模式，提升肉牛养殖场户综合经济效益水平；统筹利用土地资源，提高种养结合强度；推动利益联结机制创新，发展合作型种养结合模式。

Abstract:

To promote the development of circular green agriculture crop-livestock integrated system in China, explore the path of cost saving and efficiency increasing in beef cattle breeding, and help rural revitalization. Based on field research data from 652 beef cattle farmers in six typical provinces of China, this research used multinomial endogenous switching regression model to study the economic effects of beef cattle farmers from two perspectives under a counterfactual framework: different crop-livestock integrated system modes and integrated intensity. The results indicated that the crop-livestock integrated system could significantly improve the net profit level of beef cattle farmers, and there were significant differences under different modes and intensities. Specifically, in terms of different modes of crop-livestock integrated system, compared with non crop-livestock integrated system, independent crop-livestock integrated system, mixed crop-livestock integrated system, and cooperative crop-livestock integrated system would significantly increase the net profit of beef cattle breeding. In terms of the strength of different crop-livestock integrated system, compared with loose crop-livestock integrated system, the net profit of beef cattle breeding with general and tight crop-livestock integrated system would significantly increase. Based on this, relevant suggestions are proposed for the development of crop-livestock integrated system in the beef cattle breeding industry: exploring efficient models of crop-livestock integrated system to improve the comprehensive economic benefits of beef cattle farmers, coordinating the utilization of land resources and enhancing the integration of planting and breeding, as well as promoting innovation in the mechanism of interest linkage and developing a cooperative crop-livestock integrated mode.