地块相连抑或成片：连片转入对耕地“非粮化”的影响

PPLOTS OF LAND ARE CONNECTED OR IN PATCHES: THE IMPACT OF THE TRANSFER OF CONTIGUOUS PLOTS ON NON-GRAIN PRODUCTION OF CULTIVATED LAND

关键词:  土地集中  连片流转  工具变量法  耕地“非粮化”  地块

Key words:  land concentration  contiguous transfers  instrumental variables approach  non-grain production of cultivated land  land plots

摘要:

目的 土地集中连片作为中国农业现代化的必经之路，却同样为耕地“非粮化”提供便利。连片流转作为土地集中的主要抓手，现有研究却忽视了地块层面上不同连片方式对粮食增产的潜力。方法 基于规模经济理论，文章运用IV-Tobit和IV-OLS方法，使用3 812个农户和地块数据研究连片转入对粮食生产和耕地“非粮化”的影响。结果 （1）土地连片转入能促进耕地“趋粮化”，其中相连转入的促进作用较大。（2）连片转入对最大地块规模的促进作用较大。（3）最大地块规模化对促进粮食生产有积极作用。（4）进行连片转入和土地规模化的老龄化家庭能促进耕地“趋粮化”。（5）相连转入在粮食非主产区和平原区的“趋粮化”效果较强；最大地块规模在粮食主产区和非平原区能显著促进“趋粮化”。结论 鼓励以多种形式实现相连转入，尽可能保证最大地块面积地扩大，以积极的土地模式对待老龄化趋势。重点促进粮食非主产区的土地规模经营，并加强其最大地块种植的监测管理，确保土地先满足“宜粮则粮”。该研究为农业“双规模化”下如何保障粮食安全提供了新的研究视角。

Abstract:

Land concentration and contiguous land use, as a necessary path for China's agricultural modernization, provides an opportunity for non-grain production of cultivated land. While the transfer of contiguous land is the main tool for land concentration, existing studies have neglected the potential of different contiguous methods at the plot level to increase food production. Based on the theory of economies of scale, this research adopted the IV-Tobit and IV-OLS method to explore the impact of contiguous transfers on grain production and non-grain production of cultivated land using the data from 3 812 farmers and plots. The results were showed as follows. (1) The transfer of contiguous pieces of land promoted grain production of cultivated land, and the effect of connected transfer was even greater. (2) The effect of contiguous transfer on the maximum plot size was greater. (3) Maximum plot size had a positive effect on promoting food production. (4) Aging farm families that received contiguous land transfers and scaled up their operations significantly contributed to cultivated land allocation for grain production. (5) The effect of piecemeal transfer was stronger in non-main production areas than in main production areas. Therefore, it should encourage the implementation of connected transfers in various forms, ensure maximum land area expansion as much as possible, and treat the aging trend with a positive land model. Meanwhile, it should focus on promoting large-scale land management in non-major grain producing areas, and strengthen the monitoring and management of the largest plots of land cultivated, to ensure that the land is prior used for grain production where conditions permit. This research may provide a new research perspective on how to ensure food security under the "dual-scale" development of agriculture.