中国乡村产业高质量发展区域差异及驱动因素

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES AND DRIVING FACTORS OF RURAL INDUSTRIES HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

关键词:  乡村产业  高质量发展  理论逻辑  区域差异  驱动因素

Key words:  rural industries  high-quality development  theoretical logic  regional differences  driving factors

摘要:

目的 系统考察乡村产业高质量发展区域差异和驱动因素为推动农村经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长提供依据。方法 在探讨乡村产业高质量发展理论逻辑的基础上，文章运用主成分分析、基尼系数、核密度估计、探索性空间数据分析和时空地理加权回归模型研究2008—2020年中国31个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台）乡村产业高质量发展现实特征及驱动因素。结果 （1）除辽宁外，各地乡村产业高质量发展水平具有较大幅度提升，均超过40%。东部地区农业产业绿色化和农业服务业发展水平最高，中部地区农业多功能性发挥水平增长趋势最明显，东北地区农业产业链延伸提升幅度最大、农村产业融合经济效应水平最高，西部地区5个子系统均表现最差，但农村产业融合经济效应增速最快。（2）中国乡村产业高质量发展区域差异呈现缩小趋势，总体差异主要源于区域间差异，东部、西部和东北地区乡村产业高质量发展内部差异逐渐缩小，中部地区乡村产业高质量发展内部差异逐渐扩大，存在极化现象。中国乡村产业高质量发展存在空间集聚特征，以高—高集聚和低—低集聚类型为主。（3）城镇化水平是促进乡村产业高质量发展的主导因素，呈现两边低，中间高的隆起型格局；农村人力资本对绝大部分省市乡村产业高质量发展具有积极作用；农村交通设施的正向影响呈现自北向南递减趋势；财政支农强度的影响呈现“北正-南负”态势。结论 中国乡村产业高质量发展区域差异总体呈现下降趋势，应根据各驱动因素时空响应特征制定差异化乡村产业高质量发展政策。

Abstract:

The systematic examination of regional differences and driving factors of rural industries high-quality development can provide a basis for promoting the qualitative improvement and quantitative growth in rural economy. On the basis of exploring the theoretical logic of rural industries high-quality development, this research used PCA, Dagum coefficient decomposition, kernel density estimation, ESDA, and GTWR model to study the current characteristics and driving factors of rural industries high-quality development of 31 provinces ( municipalities and autonomous regions excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions of China) in China from 2008 to 2020. The results were showed as follows. (1) Except Liaoning, the rural industries high-quality development in various provinces significantly improved, all exceeding 40%. The eastern region had the highest level of agricultural industry green transformation and agricultural service industry development, the central region had the most obvious growth trend in agricultural multifunctionality, the northeast region had the largest improvement of the agricultural industrial chain extension and the highest level of rural industry integration economic effect and the five subsystems in the western region had the worst performance but the rural industry integration economic effect had the fastest growth rate. (2) The regional differences in the rural industries high-quality development in China showed a narrowing trend and the overall differences mainly stemmed from regional differences. The internal differences in the rural industries high-quality development in the eastern, western, and northeastern regions showed a trend of gradually narrowing while the internal differences in the rural industries high-quality development in the central region showed a gradually expanding trend, indicating a polarization phenomenon. The rural industries high-quality development in China had spatial agglomeration characteristics, mainly consisting of High-High agglomeration and Low-Low agglomeration types. (3) The level of urbanization was the leading factor in promoting rural industries high-quality development, presenting a raised pattern with low levels on both sides and high levels in the middle, and rural human capital played a positive role in the rural industries high-quality development in the vast majority of provinces, the positive impact of rural transportation facilities showed a decreasing trend from north to south，and the impact of fiscal support for agriculture showed a trend of "positive in the north and negative in the south". In summary, the overall regional differences in rural industries high-quality development in China showed a downward trend, and differentiated policies for rural industries high-quality development should be formulated based on the spatial-temporal response characteristics of various driving factors.