数字经济赋能长江经济带农业现代化：理论逻辑与实证检验

DIGITAL ECONOMY ENABLE AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION IN YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT: THEORETICAL LOGIC AND EMPIRICAL TEST

关键词:  数字经济  农业现代化  长江经济带  赋能  分维度回归  门槛回归

Key words:  digital economy  agricultural modernization  Yangtze River Economic Belt  empower  fractal regression  threshold regression

摘要:

目的 农业现代化是中国国家发展的重要议程，数字经济被视为推动农业现代化的关键引擎。长江经济带作为中国的重要农业区域，其农业现代化进程与数字经济的发展紧密相关。因此，探讨数字经济赋能长江经济带农业现代化对于国家实现高质量发展具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2011—2022年长江经济带110个城市的面板数据，建立了评价数字经济和农业现代化发展的标准体系，通过熵权法对样本城市的数字经济和农业现代化发展水平进行量化评估，并利用面板数据模型实证分析数字经济对农业现代化的促进效应。结果 （1）数字经济有效赋能长江经济带农业现代化。（2）数字经济对长江经济带的赋能效应呈现出“内陆＞沿海”的总体态势；农业现代化水平越高，数字经济的影响效应越大。（3）数字经济对农业投入水平、农业产出水平、农村社会发展水平、农业可持续发展水平发挥着巨大潜力，尤其对农业投入水平的影响最大。（4）经济发展水平和城镇化水平在促进农业现代化过程中具有非线性作用，两者在不同阶段对数字经济赋能长江经济带农业现代化有差异化影响。（5）在0.5分位点之前数字经济对长江经济带农业现代化的促进作用呈现先弱后强的U型趋势，在0.5分位后呈现逐渐上升趋势。结论 充分发挥数字经济对农业现代化的促进作用；针对不同地区特色，制定并执行定制化的数字经济策略以赋能农业现代化；加强数字经济对农村社会发展的作用；根据不同地区的经济发展水平和城镇化现状采取差异化策略。

Abstract:

Agricultural modernization is a crucial agenda in China's national development strategy, with the digital economy recognized as a key engine for driving agricultural modernization. As a significant agricultural region in China, the agricultural modernization process of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is closely linked to the development of the digital economy. Therefore, exploring how the digital economy empowers agricultural modernization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt holds great significance for achieving the nation's high-quality development goals. Based on panel data from 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2022, this research established an evaluation framework for assessing the development of the digital economy and agricultural modernization, quantified the development levels of digital economy and agricultural modernization in the sample cities by employing entropy weight method, and empirically analyzed the impact of the digital economy on agricultural modernization with a panel data model. The study found that: (1) The digital economy effectively empowered agricultural modernization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. (2) The enabling effect of the digital economy showed a general pattern of "inland > coastal areas"; the higher the level of agricultural modernization, the greater the impact of the digital economy. (3) The digital economy demonstrated substantial potential in improving agricultural input levels, agricultural output levels, rural social development, and agricultural sustainability, with the greatest impact observed on agricultural input levels. (4) Economic development and urbanization levels played a non-linear role in promoting agricultural modernization, with differentiated impacts at different stages of the digital economy's influence on agricultural modernization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. (5) The promotion effect of the digital economy on agricultural modernization exhibited a U-shaped trend before the 0.5 quantile, becoming progressively stronger beyond this point. Therefore, to fully leverage the digital economy's role in advancing agricultural modernization, customized digital economy strategies should be formulated and implemented to suit regional characteristics. It is also necessary to strengthen the role of the digital economy in promoting rural social development and adopt differentiated strategies based on the economic development levels and urbanization status of different regions.