土地流转对农户生计资本的影响研究——基于广义倾向得分匹配的实证分析

IMPACT OF LAND TRANSFER ON FARMERS' LIVELIHOOD CAPITAL——EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON THE GENERALIZED PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING

关键词:  土地流转  生计资本  广义倾向得分匹配  边际效应  涉农创业  非农就业

Key words:  land circulation  livelihood capital  generalized propensity score matching  marginal effect  agricultural entrepreneurship  non-agricultural employment

摘要:

目的 探究土地流转对农户生计资本的平均增加效应及其边际变化规律，为制定更有效的土地政策和农业发展计划提供研究依据，推进乡村振兴战略的全面贯彻落实。方法 文章以新疆作为研究区域，基于新疆3 970份农户的调查数据，采用熵权法确定各类指标权重，得出农户生计资本总量，通过倾向得分匹配模型和广义倾向得分匹配模型分别从转入和转出两个视角分析土地流转行为和流转规模对农户生计资本的影响，探究土地流转规模对生计资本增加效应的边际变化规律，并利用中介效应模型分别检验涉农创业和非农就业在土地流转规模对农户生计资本影响路径中的中介作用。结果 （1）转入户、转出户对生计资本增加效应存在异质性，土地转出增加农户生计资本的程度更明显。（2）土地流转行为能够提高农户生计资本，土地流转规模与农户生计资本存量呈现倒“U”型曲线且增加效应边际递减。（3）涉农创业和非农就业分别在土地转入规模和土地转出规模对农户生计资本的影响路径中存在中介效应。结论 土地流转能够促进农户生计资本增加，应鼓励农户积极参与土地流转，但二者之间并非简单线性关系，因此不能通过持续扩大土地流转规模增加生计资本，应在有序推进土地制度进一步落实的基础上，发展合作社和现代农业，根据农户自身家庭禀赋及流转类型制定合适决策，优化资源配置，提高农户家庭生计资本总量，助力农户生计可持续发展。

Abstract:

This research aims to investigate the average impact of land circulation on farmers' livelihood capital and its marginal changes, so as to provide a foundation for developing effective land policies and agricultural strategies, thereby supporting the comprehensive execution of the rural revitalization strategy. Utilizing survey data from 3 970 farmers in Xinjiang, this study used the entropy weight method to assign weights to different indicators and compute the total livelihood capital of farmers, and adopted the PSM and GPSM methods to examine the effects of land circulation behavior and scale on farmers' livelihood capital through both land transfer-in and transfer-out perspectives. Additionally, it investigated the marginal change in the effects of land circulation scale on livelihood capital and applied a mediation effect model to assess the role of agricultural entrepreneurship and non-agricultural employment in this impact pathway. The results were listed as follows. (1) Land circulation behavior enhanced farmers' livelihood capital. And the relationship between the scale of land circulation and the stock of farmers' livelihood capital was characterized by an inverted “U”-shaped curve and the incremental effects was diminishing at the margins. (2) There was heterogeneity in the effects on livelihood capital between land transfer-in and transfer-out households, with the latter exhibiting a greater impact. (3) Agricultural entrepreneurship and non-agricultural employment mediated the impact of land transfer scales on farmers' livelihood capital. In summary, land circulation facilitates an increase in farmers' livelihood capital, thus, their active participation is recommended. However, the relationship between land circulation scale and livelihood capital is not simply linear, implying that merely expanding the scale of land circulation will not continuously increase livelihood capital. Proper implementation of land reforms, along with the development of cooperatives and modern agriculture, is crucial. So, farmers should make decisions tailored to their household natural endowments and the types of land circulation involved to optimize resource allocation, enhance total household livelihood capital, and foster the sustainable development of farmers' livelihoods.