广西县域土地利用碳排放时空演变特征及驱动机理

SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND DRIVING MECHANISM OF LAND USE CARBON EMISSION AT COUNTY LEVEL IN GUANGXI

关键词:  碳排放  土地利用  时空特征  驱动机理  广西县域

Key words:  carbon emissions  land use  space-time characteristics  driving mechanism  county of Guangxi

摘要:

目的 土地利用碳排放作为实现“双碳”目标的关键对象，以县域为基本单元探析其时空演变特征及驱动机理对广西乃至全国的碳减排政策制定与绿色低碳高质量发展具有实践价值与指导意义。方法 文章基于碳排放系数与夜间灯光数据测算2002—2022年广西111个县域土地利用碳排放量，通过标准差椭圆模型、冷热点分析研究碳排放的重心迁移特征与集聚效应，最后采用时空地理加权回归模型及地理探测器剖析土地利用碳排放驱动机理。结果 （1）2002—2022年广西及各区域的土地碳排放量递增上升趋势较显著，空间上呈“东南高、西北低”的分布特征；（2）广西县域土地利用碳排放不显著集聚现象明显且冷热点区分布较少，20年间土地利用碳排放核心逐渐向西北方向的兴宾区偏移；（3）驱动力变化趋势为人均GDP、第二产业占比、平均高程的驱动力逐渐增强，土地利用程度的驱动力逐渐减弱，建设用地面积占比、平均坡度的驱动力先强后弱。结论 因此，坚持绿色低碳科技强化经济增长动能，调整产业结构与用地规划，合理控制建设用地无序扩张，以期形成区域绿色减碳循环发展模式，为推动绿色生产力发展与生态文明建设提供实践参考。

Abstract:

The analysis of land use carbon emissions, a crucial target for achieving the "dual carbon" goal, is conducted by examining their spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanisms at the county level. And this analysis is of practical value and provides guidance for the formulation of carbon reduction policies and the promotion of green, low-carbon, high-quality development in Guangxi and potentially nationwide. Utilizing the carbon emission coefficient and nighttime light data, this study estimated the carbon emissions resulting from land use across 111 counties in Guangxi over the period of 2002 to 2022. And the standard deviation ellipse model and hot-spot analysis were employed to scrutinize migration patterns and agglomeration effects of these carbon emissions. Lastly, the spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model and geographic detector were utilized to examine the driving forces behind carbon emissions stemming from land use. The results indicated that: (1) From 2002 to 2022, both the overall and regional land carbon emissions in Guangxi demonstrated a significant upward trend. Spatially, emissions were higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest; (2) At the county level, land use carbon emissions in Guangxi displayed no significant clustering phenomena, with limited hot and cold spot distributions. Over the past two decades, the epicenter of land use carbon emissions shifted towards Xingbin District in the northwest. (3) The driving forces indicated that the influence of per capita GDP, the proportion of secondary industry, and average elevation were progressively strengthening, while the impact of land use degree was gradually diminishing. And the influence of construction land area ratio and average slope initially strengthened but later weakened. Therefore, the adoption of green, low-carbon technology must be prioritized to bolster the momentum of economic growth. This includes adjusting industrial structures, refining land use planning, and managing construction land expansion, so as to establish a regional model for green carbon reduction that can serve as a practical reference for advancing green productivity and fostering the development of ecological civilization.