草畜平衡维护行为对牧户家庭福利水平的影响——以新疆伊犁州为例

THE IMPACT OF GRASS-LIVESTOCK BALANCE MIANTENANCE BEHAVIORS ON THE WELFARE LEVEL OF HERDSMEN——A CASE STUDY OF THE ILI PREFECTURE IN XINJIANG

关键词:  草畜平衡维护行为  减畜行为  放牧替代行为  家庭福利水平  牧户

Key words:  grass-livestock balance maintenance behavior  livestock reduction behaviors  alternative grazing behaviors  welfare level of herder families  herdsmen

摘要:

目的 “人—草—畜”平衡作为牧区绿色高质量发展的重点目标，持续关注牧户作为草畜平衡维护中最广大且重要的参与主体，保障牧户群体在参与草畜平衡维护后的福利不受损，对于推动草畜平衡维护可持续发展具有重要意义。方法 文章基于新疆伊犁州草原牧区402份牧户微观调研数据，利用内生转换模型实证检验牧户采取草畜平衡维护行为对家庭福利水平的影响，并进一步运用中介效应模型探究该影响机制，找到提升牧户采取不同草畜平衡维护行为后的福利水平的实践路径。结果 （1）户主兼业将显著促进牧户采取减畜行为，而牧户采取放牧替代行为则更多地受家庭是否拥有人工饲草地、政策监管和政策感知的正向影响，以及家庭劳动力数量的负向影响。（2）对于采纳减畜行为和放牧替代行为的牧户来说，户主兼业、家庭是否拥有人工饲草地和家庭购买饲草支出均对牧户家庭福利水平的提升效果最为明显。故帮助牧户家庭补充饲草量供应，是促进牧户放牧替代行为，进而提高牧户家庭福利水平的重要因素。处理效应表明，放牧替代行为显著提升了牧户家庭福利水平，若已采取放牧替代行为的牧户放弃采取该行为，其家庭福利水平将显著降低87.88%，而减畜行为在提升牧户家庭福利水平方面未呈现出明显优势。（3）中介效应分析表明，规模化养殖是牧户采取放牧替代行为以提升家庭福利水平的重要渠道，中介效应大小为14.3%；同时，非牧就业是牧户既采取减畜又保证福利不降低的一种重要路径，即当牧户在采取减畜行为后，通过支持牧户向非牧就业部门转移来增加家庭发展机会，可以从另一角度提升家庭福利水平，以此平衡减畜给家庭福利带来的负向影响。结论 通过加强放牧替代中舍饲棚圈等技术支持、完善非牧就业市场来保障牧户福利，激励牧户主动采取草畜平衡维护行为，实现草原生态有效治理。

Abstract:

The equilibrium of "human-grass-livestock" is a key objective for the green and high-quality development of pastoral areas. Continuous attention to herdsmen as the most extensive and significant participants in the maintenance of grass-livestock balance is crucial to ensure that the welfare of the herdsmen community is not compromised after their participation in the maintenance of grass-livestock balance, and this is of great importance for promoting the sustainable development of grass-livestock balance maintenance. Based on 402 micro-survey data from herdsmen in the grassland pastoral areas of Yili prefecture, Xinjiang, an endogenous switching model was used to empirically test the impact of herdsmen's grass-livestock balance maintenance behaviors on the level of family welfare. Furthermore, a mediation effect model was applied to explore the mechanism of this impact, and identify practical pathways to enhance the welfare level of herdsmen after adopting different grass-livestock balance maintenance behaviors. The study indicated that: (1) The concurrent occupation of the household head significantly promoted the adoption of livestock reduction behavior by herdsmen, while the adoption of grazing substitution behavior by herdsmen was more influenced by the positive impact of whether the family had artificial pasture land, policy supervision, and policy perception, as well as the negative impact of the number of family labor forces. (2) For herdsmen adopting both livestock reduction and grazing substitution behaviors, the concurrent occupation of the household head, the possession of artificial pasture land by the family, and the family's expenditure on purchasing fodder all had the most significant effect on enhancing the welfare level of herder families. Therefore, helping herder families supplement the supply of fodder was an important factor in promoting grazing substitution behavior and, consequently, the welfare level of herder families. And the treatment effect indicated that grazing substitution behavior significantly improved the welfare level of herder families. If herdsmen who had adopted grazing substitution behavior ceased to do so, their family welfare level would significantly decrease by 87.88%. In contrast, livestock reduction behavior showed no a clear advantage in enhancing the welfare level of herder families. (3) The mediation effect analysis indicated that scaled breeding was an important channel for herdsmen to adopt grazing substitution behavior to improve family welfare, with a mediation effect size of 14.3%. At the same time, non-pastoral employment was an important pathway for herdsmen to adopt livestock reduction while ensuring that welfare remained unchanged. That was, after herdsmen adopted livestock reduction behavior, supporting their transition to non-pastoral employment sectors to increase family development opportunities could enhance family welfare from another perspective, thereby balancing the negative impact of livestock reduction on family welfare. Therefore, it is essential to strengthen technical support in grazing substitution, such as the construction of feedlots and pens, and to improve the non-pastoral employment market to ensure herdsmen's welfare. And this will incentivize herdsmen to actively adopt grass-livestock balance maintenance behaviors, thus achieving effective governance of grassland ecology.