生态脆弱区乡村人居环境系统韧性特征及影响因素分析——以陕北黄土高原为例

CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF RURAL HUMAN SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS IN ECOLOGICALLY FRAGILE AREAS——A CASE STUDY OF THE LOESS PLATEAU OF NORTHERN SHAANXI

关键词:  生态脆弱区  乡村人居环境系统  韧性特征  影响因素  陕北黄土高原

Key words:  ecologically fragile areas  rural human settlement systems  resilience characteristics  influencing factors  Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi

摘要:

目的 为揭示外部多重压力作用下，生态脆弱地区乡村人居环境系统韧性内在压力、状态、响应演化特征，及其影响因素的时空异质性与作用机理。方法 文章通过建立生态脆弱地区乡村人居环境系统韧性测度指标体系，以陕北黄土高原县域为研究对象，对2006—2021年的系统韧性及其内在压力、状态、响应的时空演化进行评价与分析，进而利用Tobit模型和时空地理加权回归（Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression，GTWR）模型探讨韧性影响因素的时空异质性过程演进及其作用机理。结果 （1）2006—2021年陕北黄土高原乡村人居环境系统韧性由9.196升至10.814，提升缓慢，空间分布格局外在表征趋于清晰，形成“西北高，东南低”的整体态势；陕北黄土高原乡村人居环境系统韧性及内部压力、状态、响应时空差异明显；（2）系统内部各年压力、状态指数与系统韧性呈现相近格局，其水平均高于响应指数；各子系统压力、状态指数缓慢波动上升或维持原有水平，响应指数也持续保持在较低水平；各子系统面临持续压力威胁，且响应不足，整体状态提升缓慢；（3）生态质量、经济发展、空间格局3个维度中的生态水平、区域经济水平、生活空间破碎度、生活空间集聚度、生活空间形态指数、生态空间破碎度、生态空间形态指数、生产空间形态指数，共计8个指标对陕北黄土高原乡村人居环境系统韧性产生显著影响；其中生活空间破碎度的贡献程度最高，与空间格局相关因子的贡献度均较高；且生态质量与空间格局的正向影响持续增强，经济发展的贡献不断减弱；（4）乡村人居环境系统韧性受经济发展、生态质量、空间格局共同影响；生态质量改善是保障乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的首要基础条件，区域经济发展为其提升的内在动力，空间格局优化是关键路径，三者协同推动系统韧性循环演化。结论 该文通过揭示陕北黄土高原乡村人居环境系统韧性时空异质性及影响因素，为区域韧性提升与可持续发展提供指导，为子系统相互作用、指标体系完善及空间规划路径等方面研究奠定基础。

Abstract:

To reveal the evolutionary characteristics of internal pressure, state and response of the resilience of rural human settlement systems in ecologically fragile areas under the combined action of multiple external pressures, as well as the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and action mechanism of its influencing factors, this research constructed a measurement index system for the resilience of rural human settlement systems in ecologically fragile areas. Taking the county-level regions of the Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi as the research object, it evaluated and analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of system resilience and its internal pressure, state and response from 2006 to 2021. Furthermore, it adopted the Tobit model and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model to explore the evolutionary process of spatiotemporal heterogeneity and the corresponding action mechanism of the factors influencing resilience. The results showed that: (1) From 2006 to 2021, the resilience of rural human settlement systems on the Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi increased from 9.196 to 10.814 with a slow growth rate; the external representation of its spatial distribution pattern became increasingly distinct, forming an overall pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast. There were significant spatiotemporal differences in the resilience of rural human settlement systems on the Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi as well as its internal pressure, state and response subsystems. (2) The annual pressure and state indices of each internal subsystem were consistent with the spatial pattern of system resilience, and their levels were both higher than that of the response index. The pressure and state indices of each subsystem rose slowly with fluctuations or remained stable, while the response index stayed at a persistently low level. All subsystems were confronted with constant pressure threats and insufficient response capacity, resulting in a slow improvement of the overall state of the systems. (3)Eight indicators across three dimensions (ecological quality, economic development, spatial pattern) significantly influenced the rural human settlement system resilience in the Northern Shaanxi Loess Plateau, including ecological level, regional economic level, and six spatial pattern-related indicators (living/ecological space fragmentation degree, living space agglomeration degree, living/ecological/production space morphology index). Living space fragmentation degree had the highest contribution, with all spatial pattern factors contributing relatively highly. Notably, the positive impacts of ecological quality and spatial pattern continued to strengthen, while economic development’s contribution declined.(4)The system resilience is jointly driven by economic development, ecological quality, and spatial pattern: ecological quality improvement is the primary basic condition, regional economic development the internal driving force, and spatial pattern optimization the key path. These three synergistically promote the cyclic evolution of system resilience.In summary, by revealing the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and influencing factors of the resilience of rural human settlement systems on the Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi, this study provides guidance for regional resilience improvement and sustainable development, and lays a solid foundation for subsequent research on the interaction of subsystems, improvement of index systems and spatial planning paths.