江苏省县域乡村发展空间分异及耦合协调研究分析

SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION AND COUPLING COORDINATION OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN COUNTIES OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

关键词:  乡村发展  人—地—业  空间演化  耦合协调  江苏省

Key words:  rural development  population-land-industry  spatial evolution  coupling coordination  Jiangsu province

摘要:

目的 分析乡村人口、土地、产业空间分异演化及耦合协调特征，识别乡村发展类型与发展途径。方法 文章以江苏省县域为研究单元，通过构建乡村人地业发展指标体系，综合运用空间演化分析方法和耦合协调度模型，探析其空间演化和耦合特征。结果 （1）2010—2020年江苏省乡村人口、土地、产业子系统发展空间演化区域差异较大，前期以加速发展型和缓慢发展型为主，后期平稳发展型增多，整体发展速度有所下降，区域演化差异略有弱化。其中，乡村人口发展由快速发展型向平稳型和缓慢型转变，空间分布以苏南高值聚集，苏中和苏北呈粗放式发展态势。土地发展以快速发展型和平稳发展型为主，前者数量减少并呈集聚发展，后者增加呈分散态势，前期发展空间呈分化趋势，后期呈趋同趋势。产业发展3种类型均呈分散分布格局，快速发展型向苏中和苏北方向转移，平稳发展类型向省西北方向转移，苏南产业增长速度略有放缓，产业发展空间极化分异态势趋于稳定。（2）乡村人地业发展耦合度较高，耦合类型基本属于磨合型耦合和高水平耦合，耦合度高值区以苏中地区为集聚中心，并向苏中地区集中发展的态势；80%县域的耦合协调度值处于0.6~0.8之间，分别属于初级和中级协调水平，相互作用水平一般到较好，且呈提升趋势。协调度呈现由东向西逐渐降低的趋势，苏中协调度最高，并逐年上升，其次是苏北，保持稳定或略有提升，苏南地区协调度相对较低，提升不明显。（3）江苏省县域乡村人口、土地、产业空间分异和演化趋势与乡村人地业的耦合协调发展格局基本一致。研究期间，全省耦合协调度变化不大，县域单元耦合协调度变化差异明显。依据耦合协调度分析结果，综合空间协调发展关系将乡村发展现状分为优势发展区、协调发展区、转型提升区、协同滞后区4个类型，并针对不同协同类型的乡村地域空间发展路径进行分析。结论 乡村发展是一个复杂的有机系统，本文的多维度耦合协调关系机制为进一步识别乡村发展打下基础，未来可继续强化耦合机制以及发展失调的破解方法，加之，随着乡村发展内外部环境和自身发展阶段的不断转变，未来需要创新思路，进一步完善数据统计分类分级标准规范和乡村发展指标体系构建等，继续完善乡村发展研究方法体系。

Abstract:

To analyze the spatial differentiation and evolution of rural population, land, and industry, as well as the coupling and coordination characteristics of "population-land-industry", and to identify and sort out the types and approaches of rural development. Taking counties in Jiangsu Province as research units, a rural "population-land-industry" development indicator system was constructed, and spatial evolution analysis methods and coupling coordination models were comprehensively applied to explore their spatial evolution and coupling characteristics. The results were showed as follows. (1) From 2010 to 2020, there were significant regional differences in the spatial evolution of rural population, land, and industrial subsystems in Jiangsu Province. In the early stage, there were mainly accelerated and slow development types, while in the later stage, there was a steady growth type. The overall development speed decreased, and the regional evolution differences slightly weakened. Among them, the development of rural population had shifted from a rapid development type to a stable and slow development type, with high-value spatial distribution and aggregation in southern Jiangsu, and an extensive development trend in central and northern Jiangsu. The development of land was mainly characterized by rapid and stable development, with the former decreasing in quantity and exhibiting agglomeration development, while the latter increasing in dispersion. The development space in the early stage showed a differentiation trend, and in the later stage it showed a convergence trend. The three types of industrial development showed a dispersed distribution pattern, with the rapid development type shifting towards the central and northern directions of Jiangsu, and the stable development type shifting towards the northwest direction of the province. (2) The coupling degree of rural human-land-industry development was relatively high, with coupling types mainly belonging to the accommodative coupling and high-level coupling. The high-value areas of coupling were centered around central Jiangsu and showed a trend of concentrated development towards this region. 80% of the county-level regions had coupling coordination values ranging from 0.6 to 0.8, which belonged to the primary and intermediate coordination levels, respectively. The interaction among subsystems was moderately strong to good and exhibited an improving trend. The coordination degree exhibited a gradual decrease from east to west, with central Jiangsu having the highest coordination degree, which was increasing year by year. Northern Jiangsu followed closely, maintaining stability or slightly improving, while southern Jiangsu had a relatively lower coordination degree with no significant improvement. (3) The spatial differentiation and evolution trends of rural population, land, and industry at the county level in Jiangsu Province were basically consistent with the coupling and coordinated development pattern of rural human-land-industry. During the study period, the overall coupling coordination degree of the province did not change significantly, while there were significant differences in the coupling coordination degree among county-level units. Based on the analysis results of coupling coordination degree, the current situation of rural development was divided into four types: advantageous development area, coordinated development area, transformation and upgrading area, and collaborative lagging area. The spatial development paths of rural areas with different collaborative types are analyzed. In summary, rural development is a complex organic system. The multi-dimensional coupling coordination mechanism presented in this paper lays a foundation for further identifying rural development. In the future, it is necessary to continue strengthening the coupling mechanism and developing solutions for development imbalances. Additionally, with the continuous changes in the internal and external environments of rural development and its own development stages, innovative ideas are needed to further improve data statistical classification and grading standards, as well as the construction of rural development indicator systems. Furthermore, the research methodology system for rural development needs to be continuously improved.